The predictive value of production expectations in manufacturing industry
作者:
Jakob Brøchner Madsen,
期刊:
Journal of Forecasting
(WILEY Available online 1993)
卷期:
Volume 12,
issue 3‐4
页码: 273-289
ISSN:0277-6693
年代: 1993
DOI:10.1002/for.3980120308
出版商: John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.
关键词: Prediction of production;Length of forecast horizon;Consistent co‐variance matrix;Forecast model of production in manufacturing
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
AbstractSurveys of the production expectations in the manufacturing industry are collected monthly or quarterly in many OECD countries. The producers are asked about expected production over the next three or four months. This paper tests the predictive performance of production expectations in the manufacturing industry of eight OECD countries. Evidence indicates that: (1) survey expectations of production have a predictive value with respect to production; (2) in most cases the forecast horizon is more significant at 3 or 4 months compared to 2 or 5 months; (3) inflow of orders, order books, stocks of finished goods, etc. contain information to predict production for most countries which are not embodied in survey production expectations.
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