Predicting New Product Reliability: A Competing Risks Framework
作者:
UsherJohn,
HodgsonThorn,
期刊:
International Journal of Modelling and Simulation
(Taylor Available online 1990)
卷期:
Volume 10,
issue 1
页码: 27-31
ISSN:0228-6203
年代: 1990
DOI:10.1080/02286203.1990.11760090
出版商: Taylor&Francis
关键词: Competing Risks;Maximum;Likelihood;Masking
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
AbstractIn this paper we present an overview and critique of the most commonly used techniques for obtaining component reliability estimates as applied toward making series-system reliability predictions. In addition. we present an alternative approach that involves estimating component reliabilityfrom historical life data on previously developed systems. This approach is based upon the well-known theory ofcompeting risks. We present the model and discuss its advantages over other methods. We show how the method of maximum likelihood can be used to obtain parametric estimates of component reliability. In addition we address many of the limitations and assumptions required to ensure its successful application in a“real-world”setting. Thisframework has. in fact, been implemented successfully in a large electronic systems manufacturing firm.
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