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Predicting New Product Reliability: A Competing Risks Framework

 

作者: UsherJohn,   HodgsonThorn,  

 

期刊: International Journal of Modelling and Simulation  (Taylor Available online 1990)
卷期: Volume 10, issue 1  

页码: 27-31

 

ISSN:0228-6203

 

年代: 1990

 

DOI:10.1080/02286203.1990.11760090

 

出版商: Taylor&Francis

 

关键词: Competing Risks;Maximum;Likelihood;Masking

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

AbstractIn this paper we present an overview and critique of the most commonly used techniques for obtaining component reliability estimates as applied toward making series-system reliability predictions. In addition. we present an alternative approach that involves estimating component reliabilityfrom historical life data on previously developed systems. This approach is based upon the well-known theory ofcompeting risks. We present the model and discuss its advantages over other methods. We show how the method of maximum likelihood can be used to obtain parametric estimates of component reliability. In addition we address many of the limitations and assumptions required to ensure its successful application in a“real-world”setting. Thisframework has. in fact, been implemented successfully in a large electronic systems manufacturing firm.

 

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