Model‐Based Optimization of Infectivity ParametersA Study of the Early Epidemic in San Francisco
作者:
David Ahlgren,
Miroslaw Gorny,
Alex Stein,
期刊:
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes
(OVID Available online 1990)
卷期:
Volume 3,
issue 6
页码: 631-643
ISSN:0894-9255
年代: 1990
出版商: OVID
关键词: AIDS epidemic;Varying infectivity;Computer modeling;Optimization;Projections.
数据来源: OVID
摘要:
By combining dynamic modeling of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission with mathematical optimization techniques, we calculate values of epidemiological parameters characterizing the early epidemic (1978–1986) among homosexual and bisexual men in San Francisco. The seroconversion fraction data reported by the San Francisco hepatitis B vaccine trials cohort study for this period is accurately simulated by a model assuming varying infectivity among three stages of HIV infection (early antigen stage, HIV antibody-positive stage, and AIDS stage). Using optimization techniques, we generate curves of the annual number of new partners and the annual number of risk contacts as functions of time. We project future case rates using optimized parameter values, and we study the sensitivity of these projections to variations in parameters, including the population size and the incubation period.
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