On decoupling

 

作者: Andrew Mackillop,  

 

期刊: International Journal of Energy Research  (WILEY Available online 1990)
卷期: Volume 14, issue 1  

页码: 83-105

 

ISSN:0363-907X

 

年代: 1990

 

DOI:10.1002/er.4440140110

 

出版商: Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company

 

关键词: Energy demand;Energy‐economy decoupling;Economic growth and energy demand

 

数据来源: WILEY

 

摘要:

AbstractWorld and regional economic growth progressed at annual rates above 4% in the period 1948–73, and this was accompanied by strong growth of demand for all forms of commercial energy. Since 1973, or perhaps later, energy growth trends declined substantially below economic growth rates, but this was determined by rates and types of growth.A convenient method of describing this apparent separation of energy, and particularly oil, from economic growth is to use the term ‘decoupling’: economic growth was ‘coupled’ with energy before 1973, and ‘decoupled’ after.Even on a purely theoretical energy‐economic basis this apparent structural change is based on an internal dynamic of factors that will tend to ‘recouple’ energy demand with economic growth. This is particularly the case with non‐OECD countries, and especially developing countries.Within the OECD nations, since 1979, a relatively coherent case can be advanced for ‘decoupling’. However, using the examples of the US and Japanese economies, it is observed that the period since 1984 has been increasingly ‘coupled’. For the period 1978–88 a generalized U‐shaped evolution of annual energy‐GDP elasticities, or coefficients, is noted. This has significant implications for near‐term energy demand, particularly oil, and thus for oil price change.At the world level, and depending on the definition of ‘decoupling’, it is suggested that this trend, due to cyclic, structural and secular changes, is rather weak. Conversely, the impact of macroeconomic policy of the OECD nations on world energy is strong, because the nature and scale of economic growth directly determines energy demand. If this is the real meaning of ‘coupling’, the response of the energy economy to the rest of the economy, then there has ne

 

点击下载:  PDF (1731KB)



返 回