Microlevel Planning: Part I—Forecasting Future Scenarios
作者:
V. DEVADAS,
期刊:
Energy Sources
(Taylor Available online 1997)
卷期:
Volume 19,
issue 6
页码: 623-633
ISSN:0090-8312
年代: 1997
DOI:10.1080/00908319708908877
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: best farm method;forecast;microlevel planning;rural system;scenario;technical coefficient
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
The article presents a technique for forecasting future scenarios. The forecast is based on a set of projected inputs for the target year along with a projected set of technical coefficients. The projected inputs and the technical coefficients are arrived at either through a regression of historical data or on the basis of socioeconomic conditions of the study area as brought out by state- or district-level statistical data or through a survey conducted by the author. For some variables the best farm method was also employed for projections. The application of the method is illustrated by projecting a plausible scenario for the rural segment of Kanyakumari District for the year 1995.
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