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Forecast improvements using a volatility index

 

作者: B. Lebaron,  

 

期刊: Journal of Applied Econometrics  (WILEY Available online 1992)
卷期: Volume 7, issue S1  

页码: 137-149

 

ISSN:0883-7252

 

年代: 1992

 

DOI:10.1002/jae.3950070510

 

出版商: Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company

 

数据来源: WILEY

 

摘要:

AbstractThis paper explores the possibility of improved out of sample forecasting for stock returns and foreign exchange rates using observed nonlinearities in the two series. Forecasting is done using nonparametric techniques where important information is obtained from the current level of volatility in the series. For both series forecast improvements are observed, but for stock returns the improvements are only marginal. These results indicate the usefulness and stability of some types of nonlinear modelling for financial markets.

 

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