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Modeling the Detection Rates of Fires in Nuclear Plants: Development and Application of a Methodology for Treating Imprecise Evidence1

 

作者: Nathan Siu,   George Apostolakis,  

 

期刊: Risk Analysis  (WILEY Available online 1986)
卷期: Volume 6, issue 1  

页码: 43-59

 

ISSN:0272-4332

 

年代: 1986

 

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1986.tb00193.x

 

出版商: Blackwell Publishing Ltd

 

关键词: Fire risk;fire detection;data analysis;Bayesian methods

 

数据来源: WILEY

 

摘要:

A model is developed for the detection time of fires in nuclear power plants, which differentiates between competing modes of detection and between different initial fire severities. Our state‐of‐knowledge uncertainties in the values of the model parameters are assessed from industry experience using Bayesian methods. Because the available data are sparse, we propose means to interpret imprecise forms of evidence to the develop quantitative information, which can be used in a statistical analysis; the intent is to maximize our use of all available information. Sensitivity analyses are performed to indicate the importance of structural and distributional assumptions made in the study. The methods used to treat imprecise evidence can be applied to a wide variety of problems. The specific equations developed in this analysis are useful in general situations, where the random quantity of interest is the minimum of a set of random variables (e.g., in “competing risks” models). The computational results indicate that the competing modes formulation can lead to distributions different from those obtained via analytically simpler models, which treat each mode independently of the

 

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