AbstractThis paper presents an analysis of the relationship between oxygen balance, inert content, computed detonation parameters and incendivity for several water‐gel explosives. A mathematical technique has been developed for correlating compositional details and the permissibility test result for a number of existing compositions. The analysis covers two types of explosive compositions and three categories of permissibility tests. Using energy of detonation, oxygen balance and percentages of water and sodium chloride in the composition, this technique is able to consistently predict the permissibility test result with less than 10% exceptions. It is felt that this method will facilitate the design of new explosive formulations which have a high probability of success in permissibility test