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“Outside Agitators” and Crowds: Results from a Computer Simulation Model*

 

作者: William E. Feinberg,   Norris R. Johnson,  

 

期刊: Social Forces  (OUP Available online 1988)
卷期: Volume 67, issue 2  

页码: 398-423

 

ISSN:0037-7732

 

年代: 1988

 

DOI:10.1093/sf/67.2.398

 

出版商: The University of North Carolina Press

 

数据来源: OUP

 

摘要:

Computer simulation is used to investigate the success of an “outside agitator,” specifically the likelihood of a persistent extremist leading into “radical” action a gathering of moderates not otherwise disposed to militancy. The theoretical framework and computer simulation translation on which this work is based (Johnson&Feinberg forthcoming) assumes an ambiguous situation confronting a gathering in which each member can be located on a 10-point scale of action-choices. In the ensuing milling process, cues for action are offered and crowd members respond by shifting their choices and/or physical locations; thus, consensus for action is achieved and crowd structure emerges. In this test we generated a gathering of moderates and a persistently radical influence source, and varied whether gatherings initially maintained physical distance between themselves and the agitators. Results generally suggest that outside agitators usually cannot influence a crowd of moderates to take radical action. The variables most related to agitator success are crowd suggestibility, the action-choice advocated by the agitator, and the probability of movement within the physical space. Thus, the agitator is likely to be successful only in the specific and infrequent circumstances of a small gathering in a highly ambiguous situation in which the crowd members are not suspicious of the outsider. Outcomes showing the effects of microstructural conditions for emergent structure are also presented and discussed.

 

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