A Time Series Analysis of Binary Data
作者:
DanielMacrae Keenan,
期刊:
Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Taylor Available online 1982)
卷期:
Volume 77,
issue 380
页码: 816-821
ISSN:0162-1459
年代: 1982
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1982.10477892
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: Binary;Time series;Orthant probabilities;Kalman filter;Doubly stochastic process
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
Binary datad1,d2, …,dnare assumed to be generated by an underlying real-valued, strictly stationary process, {Xk}, and a response functionF.For a given monotone nondecreasing functionFfromRto [0, 1],Dktakes on 1 with probabilityF(xk) and 0 with probability 1 -F(xk), whereXk= xk.It is shown that all strictly stationary binary processes are characterized by such a procedure. Several approximations to then-dimensional joint probabilities ofDkare developed whenXkis a Gaussian first-order autoregressive process. Model-building procedures and methods by which to estimate parameters of a given model are discussed. The predictor ofdn+ 1that minimizes probability of error among all randomized rules is determined and for certain cases a bound for this probability is found.
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