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Incorporating cointegration relations in a short-run model of the Finnish sawlog market

 

作者: Anne Toppinen,  

 

期刊: Canadian Journal of Forest Research  (NRC Available online 1998)
卷期: Volume 28, issue 2  

页码: 291-298

 

ISSN:0045-5067

 

年代: 1998

 

DOI:10.1139/x98-010

 

出版商: NRC Research Press

 

数据来源: NRC

 

摘要:

This paper reports on the results of a simultaneous equations sawlog market model using monthly data for Finland in 1985-1997. Johansen's multivariate method is used to estimate cointegration vectors, which are then included in a dynamic error-correction model. Rank tests indicate two cointegrating vectors, which is theoretically consistent with the demand and supply equations. In the sawlog demand, the equilibrium is established for sawlog stumpage price and quantity and sawn wood price and capital stock, while the supply function in a perfect capital market entails sawlog price and quantity, real interest rate, and the effect of increasing timber stock as captured by a linear trend. Contrary to earlier findings, stumpage price seems to have a positive effect on sawlog supply, both in the short and long run, while only the long-run price effect is present in the sawlog demand. Disequilibrium in demand is corrected within one quarter, while the speed of adjustment is found to be slow in the sawlog supply.

 

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