首页   按字顺浏览 期刊浏览 卷期浏览 The Chilean Plebiscite: Projections without Historic Data
The Chilean Plebiscite: Projections without Historic Data

 

作者: Eduardo Engel,   Achilles Venetoulias,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1992)
卷期: Volume 87, issue 420  

页码: 933-941

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1992

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1992.10476247

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Election;Prediction;Projection;Sampling;Stratification

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

On October 5, 1988, Chileans decided by plebiscite to oust General Pinochet from power and have free presidential elections in 1989. This article describes the projections that the authors made for the results of the plebiscite from early returns. From a statistical point of view, what made these projections different from those made in other countries was the complete lack of historic data. Furthermore, the Pinochet government carried out a campaign to discredit the projection effort. Uncertainty about both the data and the unpredictable political climate on the night of the plebiscite influenced the choice of the statistical methodology. The predictions, based on a 10% sample of the first one-third of the votes counted, were within one-half a percentage point of the true outcome. The described methodology could prove useful in projections of other elections that will take place under similar conditions (e.g., in Eastern Europe).

 

点击下载:  PDF (943KB)



返 回