Separating Variability and Uncertainty in Environmental Risk Assessment—Making Choices
作者:
Elizabeth J. Kelly,
Katherine Campbell,
期刊:
Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal
(Taylor Available online 2000)
卷期:
Volume 6,
issue 1
页码: 1-13
ISSN:1080-7039
年代: 2000
DOI:10.1080/10807030091124419
出版商: TAYLOR & FRANCIS
关键词: variability;uncertainty;risk;minimum variance unbiased estimation;Bayesian Estimation;two-stage Monte Carlo.
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
This article reviews some of the current guidance concerning the separation of variability and uncertainty in presenting the results of human health and ecological risk assessments. Such guidance and some of the published examples of its implementation using two-stage Monte Carlo simulation methods have not emphasized the fact that there is considerable judgment involved in determining which input parameters can be modeled as purely variable or purely uncertain, and which require explicit treatment in both dimensions. Failure to discuss these choices leads to confusion and misunderstanding of the proposed methods. We conclude with an example illustrating some of the reasoning and statistical calculations that might be used to inform such choices.
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