Bayesian Analysis of Time Evolution of Earthquakes
作者:
Mario Peruggia,
Thomas Santner,
期刊:
Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Taylor Available online 1996)
卷期:
Volume 91,
issue 435
页码: 1209-1218
ISSN:0162-1459
年代: 1996
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1996.10476990
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: Conditional intensity function;Confidence bands;Epidemic model;Italian seismic catalog;Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling;Metropolis—Hastings algorithm;Point process
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
We adopt a Bayesian approach to analyze the occurrence times of seismic events and their magnitudes. We choose an epidemic model for the process of occurrence times conditional on the observed magnitude values. The locations of, and dependencies between, the model parameters are determined on the basis of historical and physical information. The overall prior variability is deliberately made diffuse. We generate samples from the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters by using a variant of the Metropolis—Hastings algorithm. We use the results in a variety of ways, including the construction of pointwise posterior confidence bands for the conditional intensity of the point process as a function of time.
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