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Bayesian Analysis of Time Evolution of Earthquakes

 

作者: Mario Peruggia,   Thomas Santner,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1996)
卷期: Volume 91, issue 435  

页码: 1209-1218

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1996

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1996.10476990

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Conditional intensity function;Confidence bands;Epidemic model;Italian seismic catalog;Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling;Metropolis—Hastings algorithm;Point process

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

We adopt a Bayesian approach to analyze the occurrence times of seismic events and their magnitudes. We choose an epidemic model for the process of occurrence times conditional on the observed magnitude values. The locations of, and dependencies between, the model parameters are determined on the basis of historical and physical information. The overall prior variability is deliberately made diffuse. We generate samples from the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters by using a variant of the Metropolis—Hastings algorithm. We use the results in a variety of ways, including the construction of pointwise posterior confidence bands for the conditional intensity of the point process as a function of time.

 

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