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Collegiate Football Scores, U.S.A.

 

作者: Frederick Mosteller,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1970)
卷期: Volume 65, issue 329  

页码: 35-48

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1970

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1970.10481060

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

In collegiate football, ties are now rare, only two percent of the games ending this way in 1967, the highest scoring tie being 37–37. Ties happen less than half as often as one-point differences. The most frequent outcome of a game was 14–7, although the most frequent winning score was 21 and the most frequent losing score was 0. The average winning score was 27, the average losing score, 10. A team score of 11 has a 25 percent chance of being a winning score, a score of 16 a 50 percent chance, a score of 23 a 75 percent chance and a score of 40 is practically certain to win, based on a freehand curve. Scores of 3, 9, 10 are more favorable to winning than their size would suggest, while 18 and 22 are less favorable than theirs suggests. Indeed, a score of 9 is more likely to win than is a score of 15, and nearly as likely as a score of 18.

 

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