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Some stochastic models of AIDS spread

 

作者: W. Y. Tan,   H. Hsu,  

 

期刊: Statistics in Medicine  (WILEY Available online 1989)
卷期: Volume 8, issue 1  

页码: 121-136

 

ISSN:0277-6715

 

年代: 1989

 

DOI:10.1002/sim.4780080112

 

出版商: Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company

 

数据来源: WILEY

 

摘要:

AbstractIn this paper we propose a stochastic model for the AIDS spread in a homosexual population. The probability generating function (PGF) of the numbers of latent persons, infective persons and AIDS cases is derived. By using the PGF, it is shown that the expected numbers and variances and covariances of these persons satisfy some ordinary differential equations. These equations have been solved numerically to assess effects of various factors on AIDS spread.

 

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