A method is proposed by which the incidence of motion sickness may be predicted from measurement of the motion exposure. The method is based on data from both field and laboratory studies involving large numbers of people and is applicable to marine and other environments where vertical oscillation occurs at frequencies below 0.5 Hz. The dependence of motion sickness on the frequency of oscillation requires the use of a weighting function between 0.1 and 0.5 Hz. The dependence of sickness on the duration of exposure is incorporated by the use of a cumulative measure of motion dose based on the product of root‐mean‐square (rms) acceleration magnitude and the square root of stimulus duration. The influence of population variables such as sex, age, and motion experience is discussed. The method enables separate predictions to be made of vomiting incidence and of feelings of illness. The prediction procedure, while not seeking to explain the underlying mechanisms of motion sickness occurrence, provides a generally applicable method which is simple to use and has an accuracy consistent with the experimental data on which it is based.