Reliability (and Fault Tree) Analysis Using Expert Opinions
作者:
DennisV. Lindley,
NozerD. Singpurwalla,
期刊:
Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Taylor Available online 1986)
卷期:
Volume 81,
issue 393
页码: 87-90
ISSN:0162-1459
年代: 1986
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478241
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: Expert systems;Combination of expert opinions;Artificial intelligence;Fault tree analysis;Systems reliability analysis;LaPlace's method of approximation
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
In this article we introduce a formal procedure for the use of expert opinions in reliability (and fault tree) analysis. We consider the case of multicomponent parallel redundant systems for which there could be a single expert or a group of experts giving us opinions about each component. Inherent in our approach are a procedure for reflecting our judgment of the experts' expertise and our own opinions about the components' life lengths. An important issue here is the induced dependencies between the components' life lengths due to any common knowledge shared by the experts. Our final results are approximations that depend on our having small uncertainty about what the experts have to say. The approximations are easily computable, and they can be generalized to cover any coherent system.
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