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On the Difficulties Inherent in Fisher's Fiducial Argument

 

作者: A.P. Dempster,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1964)
卷期: Volume 59, issue 305  

页码: 56-66

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1964

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1964.10480700

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

The termspredictiveandpostdictiveare introduced for two basic and implicitly well-known modes of interpreting probabilities, and the roles of these two modes in statistical inference are discussed with emphasis on the confidence argument of Neyman and the fiducial argument of Fisher. The conflicts between the confidence approach and the fiducial approach are analyzed in a way which generally supports Fisher's position. Finally, difficulties internal to the fiducial approach are discussed. It is concluded that the general form of the fiducial argument is appealing but that many of the restrictions imposed by Fisher are awkward or ambiguous and ought, perhaps, to be replaced.

 

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