A Favorable Side Bet in Nevada Baccarat
作者:
EdwardO. Thorp,
WilliamE. Walden,
期刊:
Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Taylor Available online 1966)
卷期:
Volume 61,
issue 314
页码: 313-328
ISSN:0162-1459
年代: 1966
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1966.10480867
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
A winning strategy is developed for the nine to oneside beton a Banker natural nine. Letnbe the number of cards that remain for play. Lettbe the number of nines that remain for play. Ifp(n, t) is the probability of a natural nine whennandtare given, thenp(n, t) is greater than 0.1 frequently enough to make the counting ofnandtthe basis for a practical winning strategy. The Kelly criterion (play to maximize the expected value of the log of capital) is used to determine bet sizes for favorable situations. Similar strategies are developed for the side bets on Banker natural eight, Player natural nine, and Player natural eight. The relationships between the four side bets are analyzed. It is shown that themain(roughly 1:1) bets on Banker and Player occasionally favor the player. There are theoretical favorable strategies but none exists which is currently practical.
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