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Uncertainties in a pharmacokinetic modeling for inorganic arsenic

 

作者: Donghan Yu,  

 

期刊: Journal of Environmental Science and Health, Part A  (Taylor Available online 1998)
卷期: Volume 33, issue 7  

页码: 1369-1390

 

ISSN:1093-4529

 

年代: 1998

 

DOI:10.1080/10934529809376794

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Inorganic arsenic;PBPK modeling;uncertainty analysis;Monte Carlo simulation;epistemic uncertainty

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

This paper presents a pharmacokinetic modeling of inorganic arsenic deposition in rodents for a short‐term exposure by the oral route. The work involves (i) the development of a physiologically‐based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model, and (ii) the uncertainty analysis of the model. Efforts on the development of a PBPK model are directed towards the prediction of the kinetic behavior of inorganic arsenic in the body, including tissue and blood concentrations, and especially, the urinary excretion of arsenic and its methylated metabolites. However, large uncertainties are associated with predictions from the model. Some of this uncertainties derives from the uncertainties about model inputs. In order to assess how model predictions are affected by the uncertainties of model inputs, the study performs a quantative uncertainty analysis in conjuction with the developed PBPK model. This approach provides a clear advantage in understanding the kinetic behavior of a chemical and its metabolites in the body for assessing risks associated with inorganic arsenic exposures.

 

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