Further Comments on the “Final Report of the Advisory Committee on Weather Control”
作者:
Jerzy Neyman,
ElizabethL. Scott,
期刊:
Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Taylor Available online 1961)
卷期:
Volume 56,
issue 295
页码: 580-600
ISSN:0162-1459
年代: 1961
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1961.10480646
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
The Final Report contains only two assertative conclusions: A(1) that commercial cloud seeding in mountainous areas produced 10–15 per cent increase in precipitation, and A(3) that no seeding project meant to increase precipitation was found in which the indicated effect of cloud seeding was negative. With reference to A(1) evidence is introduced showing that the apparent 10–15 per cent increase in precipitation is likely to be due to a combination of factors other than cloud seeding. Conclusion A(3) was found inconsistent with some of the Advisory Committee's own findings and with some other published results. Section 8 indicates that a Bayes decision rule whether to seed or not, published in Volume II of the Final Report as minimizing the risks, may well maximize these risks. Section 9 indicates a misrepresentation and a significant omission in Volume II of the Final Report.
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