Determination of an Optimal Forecast Model for Ambulance Demand Using Goal Programming
作者:
BakerJ. R.,
FitzpatrickK. E.,
期刊:
Journal of the Operational Research Society
(Taylor Available online 1986)
卷期:
Volume 37,
issue 11
页码: 1047-1059
ISSN:0160-5682
年代: 1986
DOI:10.1057/jors.1986.182
出版商: Taylor&Francis
关键词: forecasting;goal programming;quadratic programming
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
AbstractA multistep approach to determining the optimal parameters of an exponential smoothing model was used to forecast emergency medical service (E.M.S.) demand for four counties of South Carolina. Daily emergency and routine (non-emergency) demand data were obtained and forecast statistics generated for each county sampled, using Winters' exponential smoothing model. A goal programme was formulated to combine forecast results for emergency calls with routine call forecasts. The goal programme gave a higher priority to accurate forecasting of emergency demand. The forecast model generated implicitly weights demand by severity and provides a reliable estimate of demand overall. The optimal parameter values for the smoothing model were obtained by minimizing the objective function value of the goal programming problem.The parameter values obtained were used to forecast demand for E.M.S. in the selected counties. The results of the model were compared to those obtained using a multiple linear regression model and a single-objective-based exponential smoothing model for 2 months of data. When compared with two single-objective forecast models, the multiple-objective approach yielded more accurate forecasts and, therefore, was more cost-effective for the planner. The model presents and demonstrates a theoretical approach to improving the accuracy of ambulance demand forecasts. The possible impact of this approach on planning efficiency is discussed.
点击下载:
PDF (5642KB)
返 回