Modelling Risk Trade-Off
作者:
KleinJonathan H.,
期刊:
Journal of the Operational Research Society
(Taylor Available online 1993)
卷期:
Volume 44,
issue 5
页码: 445-460
ISSN:0160-5682
年代: 1993
DOI:10.1057/jors.1993.81
出版商: Taylor&Francis
关键词: Risk;Project Management;Cognitive Mapping;Contingency-Response Analysis;Uncertainty-Level Models
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
AbstractThis paper considers the trade-offs that may be made in the risk and uncertainty associated with various performance criteria of a project activity. Specifically, duration, cost and quality are the criteria considered, and the uncertainties in them are regarded as manifestations of the intrinsic risk of the activity. Three complementary approaches to conceptualizing and modelling risk trade-offs, as an aid to project planning, are presented in the context of a single activity. A cognitive mapping approach encourages articulation and exploration of ideas about risk trade-offs. A contingency-response analysis approach aids detailed risk contingency planning. A risk-level approach provides a picture of risk exposure options. This last approach, in particular, is developed in the context of projects consisting of sequences of activities.
点击下载:
PDF (7132KB)
返 回