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What is the ‘best’ method of forecasting?

 

作者: C. Chatfield,  

 

期刊: Journal of Applied Statistics  (Taylor Available online 1988)
卷期: Volume 15, issue 1  

页码: 19-38

 

ISSN:0266-4763

 

年代: 1988

 

DOI:10.1080/02664768800000003

 

出版商: Carfax Publishing Company

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Forecasting methods are reviewed. They may be classified into univariate, multivariate and judgemental methods, and also by whether an automatic or non-automatic approach is adopted. The choice of ‘best’ method depends on a wide variety of considerations. The use of forecasting competitions to compare the accuracy of univariate methods is discussed. The strengths and weaknesses of different univariate methods are compared, both in automatic and non-automatic mode. Some general recommendations are made as well as some suggestions for future research.

 

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