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Bayesian Inference in Cyclical Component Dynamic Linear Models

 

作者: Mike West,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1995)
卷期: Volume 90, issue 432  

页码: 1301-1312

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1995

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1995.10476634

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Autoregressive component dynamic linear model;Cyclical time series;Dynamic linear model;Markov chain Monte Carlo

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Dynamic linear models (DLM's) with time-varying cyclical components are developed for the analysis of time series with persistent though time-varying cyclical behavior. The development covers inference on wavelengths of possibly several persistent cycles in nonstationary time series, permitting explicit time variation in amplitudes and phases of component waveforms, decomposition of stochastic inputs into purely observational noise and innovations that impact on the waveform characteristics, with extensions to incorporate ranges of (time-varying) time series and regression terms wihin the standard DLM context. Bayesian inference via iterative stochastic simulation methods is developed and illustrated. Some indications of model extensions and generalizations are given. In addition to the specific focus on cyclical component models, the development provides the basis for Bayesian inference, via stochastic simulation, for state evolution matrix parameters and variance components in DLM's, building on recent work on Gibbs sampling for state vectors in such models by other authors.

 

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