Modeling the Supply of Nurse LaborLife-Cycle Activity Patterns of Registered Nurses in One Canadian Delivery System
作者:
Arminée Kazanjian,
Kent Brothers,
Gordon Wong,
期刊:
Medical Care
(OVID Available online 1986)
卷期:
Volume 24,
issue 12
页码: 1067-1083
ISSN:0025-7079
年代: 1986
出版商: OVID
关键词: manpower planning;nurse supply;forecasting model;life-cycle activity patterns;age-specific projections
数据来源: OVID
摘要:
Using 1980 membership data made available by the provincial nurses' association, a simple, age-specific projection model was developed that comprised two submodels: a Markovian one to monitor yearly movements from one membership state to another and a linear submodel for the infusion of new members. The model assumes that the likelihood of moving to any membership state depends only on the nurse's current age and membership state. A comparison of actual/projected data for 1981-1984 indicates a fairly high level of accuracy, despite the oscillatory pattern of the nurse labor market in the Province of British Columbia since 1982. The details of the projections of labor force over time show a particular age cohort's characteristic behavior and delineate the effect of childbearing and aging on the supply of nurses. As well as projecting future manpower, the age-specific transition matrices were used to estimate the professional life expectancy of registered nurses. This information includes the average number of continuous years of practice for each age, as well as the average total number of years of practice until being deleted from the system at the age of 75. The forecasting capability developed from this work attempts to address two questions central to manpower planning: (1) how many nurses will there be in the province in the next 5 years? and (2) what is the time-frame involved in nurses' life-cycle activity patterns?
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