Old provenance experiments with Scots pine and Norway spruce in Finland were used for assessing the long‐term effects of the projected climatic change on forest trees. The northernmost origins showed an increase in wood production when transferred southwards into a climate with an annual mean effective temperature sum close to that which is expected in northern areas as a result of the projected climatic change. A model is constructed with the estimated changes in wood production as a function of the annual mean temperature sum at the original location and the change in the annual mean temperature sum caused by the geographical transfer. The major changes in wood production are expected to occur in the northernmost areas of tree growth.