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A Report On The Analysis Of Floods Using Probability Theory

 

作者: AshkarFahim,   RousselleJean,  

 

期刊: International Journal of Modelling and Simulation  (Taylor Available online 1985)
卷期: Volume 5, issue 1  

页码: 9-14

 

ISSN:0228-6203

 

年代: 1985

 

DOI:10.1080/02286203.1985.11759899

 

出版商: Taylor&Francis

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

AbstractMan has long been concerned about floods and the physical and non-physical damage they bring to him and his environment. He will probably have to struggle with this damage for a long time to come, because in many parts of the world, and especially in industriali zed and densely popul ated areas, flood damage is on the increase. Because of the stochastic nature of the flood phenomenon, mathematical statistics and probability theory have come to play an increasingly important role in the study of its random behavior. Extreme value theory, in particular, has proven to be a very useful tool for the study of floods as extreme hydrologic events. several studies have been conducted within the past few years in search for a widely appl icable model for the simultaneous analysis of flood frequency and flood magnitude. Aparticular class of probabilistic space-time models, with which we are concerned in the present study, seems to be very promising, and improvements are continuously being reported in water resources literature with regard to such models. In the present report, we discuss the advantages and limitations of this probabilistic approach to flood analysis, and point to some research gaps which mathematicians and engineers may wish to investigate.

 

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