Predictive Accuracy of Quarterly and Annual Aggregate Saving Functions
作者:
GeorgeD. Craig,
期刊:
Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Taylor Available online 1970)
卷期:
Volume 65,
issue 331
页码: 1131-1145
ISSN:0162-1459
年代: 1970
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1970.10481149
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
Aggregate saving functions have been grouped into several models which have similar theoretical underpinnings. They are then tested under criteria pertaining to their predictive accuracy and their economic reasonableness. It is found that saving is predicted much more accurately when it includes net investment in consumer durables (i.e., “use value” saving,DS) as opposed to when it is defined as only personal saving (S). In predictingDS, the functions which use current income and lagged consumption perform best. In predictingS, the functions which perform best are those which include liquid assets in addition to current income and lagged consumption.
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