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Predictive Accuracy of Quarterly and Annual Aggregate Saving Functions

 

作者: GeorgeD. Craig,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1970)
卷期: Volume 65, issue 331  

页码: 1131-1145

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1970

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1970.10481149

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Aggregate saving functions have been grouped into several models which have similar theoretical underpinnings. They are then tested under criteria pertaining to their predictive accuracy and their economic reasonableness. It is found that saving is predicted much more accurately when it includes net investment in consumer durables (i.e., “use value” saving,DS) as opposed to when it is defined as only personal saving (S). In predictingDS, the functions which use current income and lagged consumption perform best. In predictingS, the functions which perform best are those which include liquid assets in addition to current income and lagged consumption.

 

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