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The Use of Linear-Model Methodology to Rate High School or College Football Teams

 

作者: David Harville,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1977)
卷期: Volume 72, issue 358  

页码: 278-289

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1977

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1977.10480991

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Football ratings;Mixed linear models;Linear prediction;Variance components;Time series models

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

A procedure for rating high school or college football teams is developed by applying linear-model methodology to the point spread for each game. The model includes effects for the home-field advantage and for the mean performance levels of the participating teams. The procedure can be modified to use only win-loss information or to ignore victory margins greater than a given margin. When applied to the results of the 1975 college football season, it produced predictions whose accuracy compares favorably with those of sportswriters and bookmakers.

 

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