The Use of Linear-Model Methodology to Rate High School or College Football Teams
作者:
David Harville,
期刊:
Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Taylor Available online 1977)
卷期:
Volume 72,
issue 358
页码: 278-289
ISSN:0162-1459
年代: 1977
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1977.10480991
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: Football ratings;Mixed linear models;Linear prediction;Variance components;Time series models
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
A procedure for rating high school or college football teams is developed by applying linear-model methodology to the point spread for each game. The model includes effects for the home-field advantage and for the mean performance levels of the participating teams. The procedure can be modified to use only win-loss information or to ignore victory margins greater than a given margin. When applied to the results of the 1975 college football season, it produced predictions whose accuracy compares favorably with those of sportswriters and bookmakers.
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