Flash flood forecasting model for the Ayalon stream, Israel
作者:
VLADIMIR KHAVICH,
ARIE BEN-ZVI,
期刊:
Hydrological Sciences Journal
(Taylor Available online 1995)
卷期:
Volume 40,
issue 5
页码: 599-613
ISSN:0262-6667
年代: 1995
DOI:10.1080/02626669509491447
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
A composite model for real time forecasting of flash floods in the Ayalon stream in central Israel has been constructed. The model is composed of four kinds of sub-models: an autoregressive model for discharges at upstream stations on the two major tributaries; a travel-time model for the flow from these stations to the downstream station located on the main stem of the stream; a time-area concentration curve for subwatershed drainage between the upstream and downstream stations; and a recession curve for the downstream station. The model incorporates an adaptive mechanism for continuous correction of forecast errors. This mechanism is calibrated during an initial period of operation, and is subsequently operated throughout a flow event. The model issues simultaneous forecasts for seven lead times ranging from 0.5 to 3.5 h. This provides a proper input for a flood warning system which is required for safe operation of a major highway running along the banks of a torrent stream in the metropolitan area of Tel-Aviv.
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