Analysis of the Lithuanian final energy consumption using fuzzy sets
作者:
Carsten Oder,
Hans‐Dietrich Haasis,
Otto Rentz,
期刊:
International Journal of Energy Research
(WILEY Available online 1993)
卷期:
Volume 17,
issue 1
页码: 35-44
ISSN:0363-907X
年代: 1993
DOI:10.1002/er.4440170106
出版商: Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
关键词: Lithuania;Final energy demand;Fuzzy sets
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
AbstractIn the paper, the development of final energy consumption in Lithuania, on the basis of realistic economic scenarios, is investigated. The main parameters influencing the energy consumption are the gross national product (GNP) and the wholesale price of energy. Owing to the uncertainties in former socialist economies, these parameters are described as ‘fuzzy sets.’ The theory of fuzzy sets is used to study the influences that the prices of preceding periods have on the actual final energy consumption, with a quasidynamic model. In so far as this mechanism cannot be ascertained for Lithuania, experiences with other former centrally planned economies, which have already turned into a kind of market economy, are applied to give realistic projections for the transitory period. The underlying scenarios for the GNP and price developments are taken from official Lithuanian projections. The results of the fuzzy quasidynamic model are compared with the official final energy demand projections, to provide policy advice for a proper restructuring of the energy sys
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