The value of aids incidence data in assessing the spread of HIV infection
作者:
Victor de Gruttola,
Stephen W. Lagakos,
期刊:
Statistics in Medicine
(WILEY Available online 1989)
卷期:
Volume 8,
issue 1
页码: 35-43
ISSN:0277-6715
年代: 1989
DOI:10.1002/sim.4780080106
出版商: Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
关键词: AIDS;Doubling time;HIV prevalence;Induction distribution
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
AbstractChanges over time in the cumulative number of cases of AIDS depend in a complex way on several features of the epidemic, including the distribution of the induction time between infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and onset of symptoms of AIDS, heterogeneity in such behaviours as sexual practices, selection of partners, and IV drug use, and changes over time in these behaviours. Consequently, the observed increase in the doubling time in cumulative AIDS incidence from 5 to 13 months, since AIDS was first recognized in 1982, demonstrates neither that the epidemic has begun to ‘run its course’ nor that behavioural changes have had a major impact in reducing incidence. Even in a homogeneous population with known induction distribution, AIDS incidence data currently are of little value in determining the number of persons infected with HIV unless additional information is available about the shape of cumulative incidence curve of HIV infect
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