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A Drunk and Her Dog: An Illustration of Cointegration and Error Correction

 

作者: MichaelP. Murray,  

 

期刊: The American Statistician  (Taylor Available online 1994)
卷期: Volume 48, issue 1  

页码: 37-39

 

ISSN:0003-1305

 

年代: 1994

 

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1994.10476017

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Drunkard's walk;Econometrics;Nonstationary process;Random walk

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

If there exists a stationary linear combination of nonstationary random variables, the variables combined are said to becointegrated.A humorous example of a drunk and her dog illustrates cointegration much as “the drunkard's walk” illustrates random-walk processes. The example makes clear why using first differences of the variables is a mistaken way to look for linear relationships between potentially cointegrated variables. The example also makes clear the link between cointegrated variables and error-correction models.

 

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