A Brownian Motion Model for the Progress of Sports Scores
作者:
HalS. Stern,
期刊:
Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Taylor Available online 1994)
卷期:
Volume 89,
issue 427
页码: 1128-1134
ISSN:0162-1459
年代: 1994
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1994.10476851
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: Baseball;Basketball;Probit regression
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
The difference between the home and visiting teams' scores in a sports contest is modeled as a Brownian motion process defined ont∈ (0, 1), with drift μ points in favor of the home team and variance [sgrave]2. The model obtains a simple relationship between the home team's lead (or deficit)lat timetand the probability of victory for the home team. The model provides a good fit to the results of 493 professional basketball games from the 1991-1992 National Basketball Association (NBA) season. The model is applied to the progress of baseball scores, a process that would appear to be too discrete to be adequately modeled by the Brownian motion process. Surprisingly, the Brownian motion model matches previous calculations for baseball reasonably well.
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