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Relationships—and the Lack Thereof—Between Economic Time Series, with Special Reference to Money and Interest Rates

 

作者: DavidA. Pierce,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1977)
卷期: Volume 72, issue 357  

页码: 11-22

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1977

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1977.10479899

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Time-series modeling;Cross-correlation analysis;Weak relationships;Independence;Coefficient of determination;Economic forecasting

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Extensions of time-series modeling procedures of Box and Jenkins [5] reveal that numerous economic variables which are generally regarded as being strongly interrelated may with equal validity, based on recent empirical evidence, be regarded as independent or only weakly related. Differences between these results and the bulk of econometric literature are attributed to the failure of the latter to satisfactorily account for autocorrelation. Due to limitations in the data, it is concluded that in many instances where economic relationships clearly do exist, econometric or other empirical means cannot reliably enable their existence to be ascertained.

 

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