A New Distribution Function for Risk Analysis
作者:
BernyJ.,
期刊:
Journal of the Operational Research Society
(Taylor Available online 1989)
卷期:
Volume 40,
issue 12
页码: 1121-1127
ISSN:0160-5682
年代: 1989
DOI:10.1057/jors.1989.193
出版商: Taylor&Francis
关键词: beta distribution;critical path analysis;PERT;project management;risk analysis
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
AbstractThis paper presents an alternative to the beta continuous probability distribution for risk analysis. Particular attention has been given to two major applications of distributions, namely project management risk and critical path analysis (PERT). In conjunction with the beta, the triangular and normal distributions are frequently employed in order to give sufficient robustness to risk analysis. The beta distribution, as used in PERT, has a major theoretical implementation flaw. The new distribution was developed to give a possible alternative method of assessing risk. It is shown that the requirement to estimate the most pessimistic variate may be replaced by the probability to exceed the mode. Proposals for other simplifications in risk analysis are discussed. Practical means to validate the most appropriate distributions for risk analysis are outlined, and a cost-data case study is included.
点击下载:
PDF (3416KB)
返 回