Forecasting the spot price of gold:combined forecast approaches versus a composite forecast approach
作者:
H. W. Mui,
C. W. Chu,
期刊:
Journal of Applied Statistics
(Taylor Available online 1993)
卷期:
Volume 20,
issue 1
页码: 13-23
ISSN:0266-4763
年代: 1993
DOI:10.1080/02664769300000002
出版商: Carfax Publishing Company
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
The fluctuation of the gold price has significant impact on the economic and social aspects of a society. In the literature, most authors have employed fundamental analysis approach in forecast model building. The basic principle underlying this approach is that it is the supply and the demand which simultaneously determines the gold price. However, due to the lack of data of quantity supplied and quantity demanded, simultaneous econometric approach seems unsuccessful. In this paper, combined and composite time series forecasting techniques are proposed. The effects of various economic factors towards spot price of gold are also examined. Among the combined forecasting models, it seems that the odds-matrix method of assigning weights provides the most accurate forecasts of spot price of gold. For the economic factors considered, the futures price of gold and and the exchange rate seem to be most informative in forecasting the spot price of gold.
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