Some Problems in Forecasting Population for Government Planning Purposes
作者:
DonaldB. Pittenger,
期刊:
The American Statistician
(Taylor Available online 1980)
卷期:
Volume 34,
issue 3
页码: 135-139
ISSN:0003-1305
年代: 1980
DOI:10.1080/00031305.1980.10483018
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: Capital budget planning;Use of population forecasts;Forecast guidelines;Forecast evaluation;Forecast assumptions;Official population forecasts
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
Some governments rely on centralized, official sets of population forecasts for planning capital facilities. But the nature of population forecasting, as well as the milieu of government forecasting in general, can lead to the creation of extrapolative forecasts not well suited to long-range planning. This report discusses these matters, and suggests that custom-made forecasts and the use of forecast guidelines and a review process stressing forecast assumption justification may be a more realistic basis for planning individual facilities than general-purpose, official forecasts.
点击下载:
PDF (502KB)
返 回