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Some Problems in Forecasting Population for Government Planning Purposes

 

作者: DonaldB. Pittenger,  

 

期刊: The American Statistician  (Taylor Available online 1980)
卷期: Volume 34, issue 3  

页码: 135-139

 

ISSN:0003-1305

 

年代: 1980

 

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1980.10483018

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Capital budget planning;Use of population forecasts;Forecast guidelines;Forecast evaluation;Forecast assumptions;Official population forecasts

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Some governments rely on centralized, official sets of population forecasts for planning capital facilities. But the nature of population forecasting, as well as the milieu of government forecasting in general, can lead to the creation of extrapolative forecasts not well suited to long-range planning. This report discusses these matters, and suggests that custom-made forecasts and the use of forecast guidelines and a review process stressing forecast assumption justification may be a more realistic basis for planning individual facilities than general-purpose, official forecasts.

 

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