This paper studies the linkage between the expected financial consequences of divorce and the decision to become divorced. A standard choice‐theoretic model predicts that the probability of divorce will be negatively related to the financial opportunity cost of divorce. This opportunity cost is measured as the difference in the present values of the future income streams that a married woman might expect if she were to stay married rather than become divorced. Our empirical results indicate that the expected short‐term financial consequences are a better predictor of subsequent divorce than are the longer‐term consequ