A model of an average recession and recovery
作者:
Robert L. McLaughlin,
期刊:
Journal of Forecasting
(WILEY Available online 1982)
卷期:
Volume 1,
issue 1
页码: 55-65
ISSN:0277-6693
年代: 1982
DOI:10.1002/for.3980010107
出版商: John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.
关键词: Recession Slowdown;Graphics;Turning points
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
AbstractThis paper proposes an Average Recession/Recovery Model (ARRM). It discusses the reasons why such a model is needed and how it can be developed. Major utilities of the model are (1) it is an extremely simple way to display complex forecasts to management graphically, (2) it can be applied to a single time series–with monthly or quarterly data–and is applicable to a large proportion of time series, both macro and micro, (3) it is easy to calculate, to understand, to program and to communicate with it and (4) it employs widely accepted statistical and economic meth
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