Nonstationary stochastic gold‐mining: A time‐sequential tactical‐allocation problem
作者:
Gaineford J. Hall,
期刊:
Naval Research Logistics Quarterly
(WILEY Available online 1978)
卷期:
Volume 25,
issue 1
页码: 81-93
ISSN:0028-1441
年代: 1978
DOI:10.1002/nav.3800250107
出版商: Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
AbstractThis paper presents an extension of gold‐mining problems formulated in earlier work by R. Bellman and J. Kadane. Bellman assumes there are two gold mines labeled A and B, respectively, each with a known initial amount of gold. There is one delicate gold‐mining machine which can be used to excavate one mine per day. Associated with mine A is a known constant return rate and a known constant probability of breakdown. There is also a return rate and probability of breakdown for mine B. Bellman solves the problem of finding a sequential decision procedure to maximize the expected amount of gold obtained before breakdown of the machine. Kadane extends the problem by assuming that there are several mines and that there are sequences of constants such that thejth constant for each mine represents the return rate for thejth excavation of that mine. He also assumes that the probability of breakdown during thejth excavation of a mine depends onj. We extend these results by assuming that the return rates are random variables with known joint distribution and by allowing the probability of breakdown to be a function of previous observations on the return rates. We show that under certain regularity conditions on the joint distributions of the random variables, the optimal policy is: at each stage always select a mine which has maximal conditional expected return per unit risk. This gold‐mining problem is also a formulation of the problem of time‐sequential tactical allocation of bombers to targets. Several examples illustrating these results are pr
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