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Time Series Analysis by Modified Least-Squares Techniques

 

作者: RichardM. Duvall,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1966)
卷期: Volume 61, issue 313  

页码: 152-165

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1966

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1966.10502015

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

This paper presents a procedure for estimating the components in an economic time series assuming a constant seasonal component and a trend which may be estimated locally by a polynomial. The procedure is to estimate the trend and seasonal components for each consecutive two-year time span of quarterly data using conventional least-square techniques. Thus, for each quarter in the series, except the first seven and last seven, there are eight estimates for each of these components. A weighted average of these estimates is obtained using weights such that the variance of the average is a minimum. This procedure is used to adjust male unemployment in the United States for seasonal variation, and the results compare favorably with the official adjustment of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

 

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