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The Progress of the Score during a Baseball Game

 

作者: G.R. Lindsey,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1961)
卷期: Volume 56, issue 295  

页码: 703-728

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1961

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1961.10480656

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Since a baseball game consists of a sequence of half-innings commencing in an identical manner, one is tempted to suppose that the progress of the score throughout a game would be well simulated by a sequence of random drawings from a single distribution of half-inning scores. On the other hand, the instincts of a baseball fan are offended at so simple a suggestion. The hypothesis is examined by detailed analysis of 782 professional games, and a supplementary analysis of a further 1000 games. It is shown that the scoring does vary significantly in the early innings, so that the same distribution cannot be used for each inning. But, with a few exceptions, total scores, establishments of leads, overcoming of leads, and duration of extra-inning games as observed in the actual games show good agreement with theoretical calculations based on random sampling of the half-inning scoring distributions observed.

 

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