The Progress of the Score during a Baseball Game
作者:
G.R. Lindsey,
期刊:
Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Taylor Available online 1961)
卷期:
Volume 56,
issue 295
页码: 703-728
ISSN:0162-1459
年代: 1961
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1961.10480656
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
Since a baseball game consists of a sequence of half-innings commencing in an identical manner, one is tempted to suppose that the progress of the score throughout a game would be well simulated by a sequence of random drawings from a single distribution of half-inning scores. On the other hand, the instincts of a baseball fan are offended at so simple a suggestion. The hypothesis is examined by detailed analysis of 782 professional games, and a supplementary analysis of a further 1000 games. It is shown that the scoring does vary significantly in the early innings, so that the same distribution cannot be used for each inning. But, with a few exceptions, total scores, establishments of leads, overcoming of leads, and duration of extra-inning games as observed in the actual games show good agreement with theoretical calculations based on random sampling of the half-inning scoring distributions observed.
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