Medium range forecasting of power system load (energy) demand
作者:
U. K. SARMA,
S. SINHA,
T. K. BASU,
期刊:
International Journal of Systems Science
(Taylor Available online 1987)
卷期:
Volume 18,
issue 9
页码: 1691-1702
ISSN:0020-7721
年代: 1987
DOI:10.1080/00207728708967145
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
The most popular Box-Jenkins method, generally used for short-term forecasting, is modified to make it suitable for medium and long-range forecasting. The non-stationarity and seasonality have been identified and, after removing trends and/or seasonality, the series are tested for stationarity by various methods. The series have been fitted for different auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models in the multiplicative modes. The parameter values have been determined from autocorrelation function (a.c.f.) and partial auto-correlation function (p.a.c.f.) cor-relograms and the whiteness of the residue has been checked. A forecast has been made for energy demand for one year with the help of this model and the result has been compared with actual demand.
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