首页   按字顺浏览 期刊浏览 卷期浏览 Medium range forecasting of power system load (energy) demand
Medium range forecasting of power system load (energy) demand

 

作者: U. K. SARMA,   S. SINHA,   T. K. BASU,  

 

期刊: International Journal of Systems Science  (Taylor Available online 1987)
卷期: Volume 18, issue 9  

页码: 1691-1702

 

ISSN:0020-7721

 

年代: 1987

 

DOI:10.1080/00207728708967145

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

The most popular Box-Jenkins method, generally used for short-term forecasting, is modified to make it suitable for medium and long-range forecasting. The non-stationarity and seasonality have been identified and, after removing trends and/or seasonality, the series are tested for stationarity by various methods. The series have been fitted for different auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models in the multiplicative modes. The parameter values have been determined from autocorrelation function (a.c.f.) and partial auto-correlation function (p.a.c.f.) cor-relograms and the whiteness of the residue has been checked. A forecast has been made for energy demand for one year with the help of this model and the result has been compared with actual demand.

 

点击下载:  PDF (391KB)



返 回