An empirical model is presented to forecast the incidence of root rot at stand level. In addition, the impact of different thinning programmes on the incidence of root rot is evaluated. The model is based on data from 152 permanent forest research plots of purePicea abiesin southern Sweden, within which the incidence of root rot at stump height in thinned trees has been recorded after each thinning since 1950. In total, about 20 000 stumps have been studied. According to simulations with the model, areas previously used as fields or for grazing are particularly susceptible to root rot, while old hardwood sites are less susceptible. Furthermore, simulations with the model imply that the earlier, the harder or more often a stand is thinned, the faster will be the development of root rot.