AbstractUsing a multiperiodal LP model (MARKAL) the authors assessed the likely potential of solar thermal and biogas systems under various circumstances. The study covered the period 1980–2005, in five segments of five years. It focused only on the subsystem of the energy end‐uses which can be substituted for by solar and biogas technologies.In this paper we show the main results of the study regarding the competitiveness of the single solar and biogas technologies in different scenarios and their sensitivity to incentives and prices, together with the essential technical data regarding demand and supply technologies which produced those results.The analysis performed of the potential penetration of renewable technologies into the Italian energy system shows that their contribution will remain very marginal if the price of conventional energy carriers remains constant in constant money. However, the objective of removing with renewable technologies 1.5 per cent of the total Italian energy consumption appears to be realistic in the short‐medium