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The Effect of Nonhomogeneous Populations on Markov Steady-State Probabilities

 

作者: DonaldG. Morrison,   WilliamF. Massy,   FredN. Silverman,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1971)
卷期: Volume 66, issue 334  

页码: 268-274

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1971

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1971.10482252

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

An important aspect of many Markovian analyses is the steady-state solution. This can give insight into the dynamics or momentum existing in a system. However, when we obtain Markov transition matrices by aggregating across non-homogeneous (with respect to transition probabilities) individuals, this matrix may not bear any resemblance to the transition matrices possessed by the individuals. This article investigates the effect of this heterogeneity on the calculated steady-state solution obtained from the aggregate transition matrix. We find that under various conditions this calculated steady-state solution is quite close to the true steady-state solution. These results have important implications for Markovian forecasting methods.

 

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