Forecasting Short-Term Economic Change
作者:
GeoffreyH. Moore,
期刊:
Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Taylor Available online 1969)
卷期:
Volume 64,
issue 325
页码: 1-22
ISSN:0162-1459
年代: 1969
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1969.10500952
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
Economic statisticians do not enjoy an untarnished reputation for accurate forecasting. We have managed, over the years, to come up with some memorable failures. While we have also had our share of successes, they are not as well remembered nor as numerous as we should like. Recently, however, we have begun to pay more attention to the record, and a substantial body of evidence on forecasting performance has accumulated. In this paper I propose to review this record, try to arrive at a balanced appraisal, and offer some suggestions for improvement.
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